math

  • 20 Sep

    Check, Please

    I’ve never been a waiter, or any other employee who regularly depended on tips from customers.

    If I were a waiter though, I would spend a lot of my time wondering if people were accurately gauging my level of service with their tips, or if they just sucked at math.

    Think about it. How many people do you know who get out their cell phone calculator to figure out the tip, or spend several minutes trying out some mental math before asking someone else at the table what 15 percent of their bill would be?

    There’s a good chance that of the thousands and thousands of restaurant bills each day, there’s bound to be a certain percentage with gross errors when it comes to calculating the tip. And if you’re aware of that as a waiter, it should drive you crazy not knowing how the diner really judged your performance.

    I thought about that after going out for lunch today, though I should make clear that neither of my companions inspired this thinking.

    Later in the day while watching football, I saw a commercial for a prescription drug that included a strange set of instructions relating to side effects. The ad was for Cialis, a pill designed to combat erectile dysfunction.

    When talking about the side effects, the narrator says that if you experience a sudden loss in vision or hearing, you should immediately call your doctor.

    I’ll give you a second to read that sentence again.

    If you suddenly can’t A) see, or B) hear, you should call your doctor. Are you supposed to magically know your doctor’s number and where your phone is just by feeling the objects around you?

    And when you successfully make the call, how is the conversation supposed to go?

    You: (waits for what seems like enough time that someone would have answered) “Hi. I can’t hear you because I have experienced a sudden loss in hearing. I took Cialis, and the commercial said I should call you if I had such a symptom. I remind you that I can’t hear a word you are saying. So, I live at 123 Oak Lane. If I need immediate medical attention, please either come to my address or send emergency personnel to my location. If I do not see people arrive at my door, I will assume this condition is not that serious and will solve itself. Thank you for your assistance, and I apologize if I have been speaking at an incredibly loud volume as I cannot hear myself.”

    By cjhannas math Uncategorized
  • 09 Sep

    The Game of Life

    The Game of Life is one of the greatest and most flawed games of my childhood. While it was fun to play, including little cars with little people you got to add along the way, the “spinner” was infuriating. Maybe they’ve changed the design so you can roll a pair of dice, or just randomly decide how many spaces you want to move. But back in the day, you had to struggle with the spinner that didn’t quite spin, or made you look like an idiot when it flew off the board.

    But there’s an even better version of The Game of Life. It’s called, well, life. Last summer ABC ran a series exploring how people work together to achieve common goals. The basis for the exploration was the tenets of game theory.

    Groups were given challenges like finding each other in Washington, D.C. The catch was they couldn’t communicate with one another, and hadn’t even met. How do you find someone when the only piece of information you have is that they are looking for you? You have to think like them. Where would they go if they were trying to find you. The only way you are successful is if that ends up being the same place.

    It was interesting to watch the different groups decide on different monuments and landmarks. If you arrive at the White House, and no one is there, do you wait? Or do you try someplace else? What if you wait there, another group is waiting at the capitol and another is waiting at the Washington Monument? Most of the groups eventually met up at the latter, while the worst of them gave up and went to a bar in Georgetown. Humans.

    It was from that show that I went out looking for a book on Game Theory. “The Survival Game” by David Barash was my choice, and I finally cracked it open this week.

    It turns out that in a lot of situations there isn’t one “right” way to approach things. In many instances, you can minimize your losses with a particular strategy but at the expense of losing out on your ultimate payoff. And in many cases our brains get in the way by injecting feelings into the decision-making process.

    One interesting example involves a simple game where two people are given $100. The first person gets to decide how to divide the money and the second decides whether to accept the deal. If they reject the deal, both get nothing. So the first person should propose $50/$50 right? Nope. They should try $99/$1. The second person is better off with $1 than with $0, so they should take the deal no matter how unfair it seems. Yet studies show people would rather walk away with nothing, and stick it to the person trying to get $99 out of the deal.

    If you’ve never had any experience with game theory, and don’t like math, this is definitely a good introduction to the topic without making you want to slam your face into a wall. Barash definitely uses plain language in the discussion. In breaking down why species tend to have roughly 50/50 splits in males and females, he talks about the advantages for those wanting to mate. If there are too many males, the species is likely to produce more females who will have many mates to choose from. When things swing back the other way (too many females), more males come into play until everything eventually comes into balance. But if given the choice many families may choose a male to carry on the family name, even if it is ultimately detrimental to the species as a whole. “You could just as well try explaining to a mallard drake why he should be a gentleman instead of a rapist.” Oh, I also learned that mallard ducks are apparently prone to gang raping females. Who knew?

    Maybe the most interesting example is the Game of Chicken. Two cars barrel at one another until one swerves, both swerve, or of course neither swerves. Barash argues that the best strategy is to thoroughly convince the other person you are completely unwilling or unable to swerve, thus making their choice obvious to get out of the way. He recommends raving like a lunatic and running around screaming before the race. Then once you are hurtling at a high speed, throw the steering wheel out the window. You’d swerve if you saw that right?

    Next up: “The Last Lecture” by Randy Pausch.

    By cjhannas books math Uncategorized
  • 17 Jan

    Let’s Not Get Carried Away

    CAUTION: This blog contains math.

    The Associated Press is reporting that cancer deaths in the U.S. have dropped for a second-straight year, “confirming that a corner has been turned in the war on cancer.”

    After reading that lead, I scanned down in the article to find out just how big this drop was. Had we really turned a corner? Have all the fund-raising and research efforts finally made a dent in the disease?

    AP says absolutely. I think they might be getting a little ahead of themselves. The data says that in 2003, the number of deaths dropped by 369 from the previous year. In 2004, the drop was more than 3000 deaths. Sure, between those two numbers that’s a big difference. But when you put those drops against the number of total deaths, the significance gets eroded.

    Journalists are expected to have a shaky grip on math. In grad school we were given a packet in an introductory course that was basically “Math for Idiots.” It was a joke. Not meant to be funny, it was the simplest math on the planet. Maybe that significance was lost on me.

    Here’s how the cancer statistics break down. In 2004, when there was a drop of 3,014 deaths, 553,888 people still died. When you look at the change between 2003 and 2004–where the difference in total deaths was eight times less in 2004–the percent change was only one half of one percent. That’s .005 between the two years.

    That’s nothing. If the government put together its new budget and said it’s going to be half a percent different from last year, nobody would care. If your taxes went up half a percent, you wouldn’t notice. Heck, if your BAC went up .005 you wouldn’t notice, or care.

    I’m all for progress and positive change, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves.

    By cjhannas math Uncategorized
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