CAUTION: This blog contains math.

The Associated Press is reporting that cancer deaths in the U.S. have dropped for a second-straight year, “confirming that a corner has been turned in the war on cancer.”

After reading that lead, I scanned down in the article to find out just how big this drop was. Had we really turned a corner? Have all the fund-raising and research efforts finally made a dent in the disease?

AP says absolutely. I think they might be getting a little ahead of themselves. The data says that in 2003, the number of deaths dropped by 369 from the previous year. In 2004, the drop was more than 3000 deaths. Sure, between those two numbers that’s a big difference. But when you put those drops against the number of total deaths, the significance gets eroded.

Journalists are expected to have a shaky grip on math. In grad school we were given a packet in an introductory course that was basically “Math for Idiots.” It was a joke. Not meant to be funny, it was the simplest math on the planet. Maybe that significance was lost on me.

Here’s how the cancer statistics break down. In 2004, when there was a drop of 3,014 deaths, 553,888 people still died. When you look at the change between 2003 and 2004–where the difference in total deaths was eight times less in 2004–the percent change was only one half of one percent. That’s .005 between the two years.

That’s nothing. If the government put together its new budget and said it’s going to be half a percent different from last year, nobody would care. If your taxes went up half a percent, you wouldn’t notice. Heck, if your BAC went up .005 you wouldn’t notice, or care.

I’m all for progress and positive change, but let’s not get ahead of ourselves.